The drying of the West

Standing on the Hoover Dam and looking upstream at Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir, the visitor notices a wide, white band ringing the cliffs (left). Nicknamed “the bathtub ring”, this discoloration comes from minerals that were once deposited on the volcanic rock by the Colorado River and have become visible as its water level has dropped. It is one sign of a water crisis that threatens America’s south-west.

Other reminders abound. Farther upstream there are dry docks, jutting out ominously into desert, where boats were once moored. In one finger of Lake Mead buildings that were abandoned in the 1930s, as the water of the newly dammed river rose and submerged them, have eerily begun reappearing, like a ghost town.

The main reason why Lake Mead, currently only 40% full, has been getting emptier is a decade-long drought. Whether this is a cyclical and normal event, or an early sign of climate change, is unclear. But even if the drought ends, most scientists think global warming will cause flows on the Colorado River to decrease by 10-30% in the next half century, says Douglas Kenney, the director of a water-policy program at the University of Colorado Law School.

The other reason, says Mr Kenney, is the rapidly increasing demand for the river’s water. The Colorado provides much or most of the water for many cities and farms in seven states—Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and California—before it peters out in the sands of Mexico.

In the northern states, its water supports cattle empires. In its southern stretch, especially in California’s Imperial County, the river irrigates deserts to produce America’s winter vegetables. And all along the way, aqueducts branch off to supply cities from Salt Lake City and Denver to Phoenix and Los Angeles. The metropolis closest to Lake Mead, Las Vegas, gets 90% of its water from this one source. (See detailed map at right)

That is why Las Vegas is a canary in the mine shaft, as Pat Mulroy, the boss of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, puts it. The Las Vegas valley gets its water through two long channels drilled through the rock. The first taps the lake at 1,050 feet (320 metres) above sea level, the second at 1,000 feet. Lake Mead’s water level is now near its record low, at 1,086 feet. Within a few years it could leave Las Vegas’s first intake, or even both, dry.

The threat to Sin City is a good example of the four dimensions—physical, legal, political and cultural—of water in the West. For the physical, the standard response is to summon the engineers. Ms Mulroy already has them digging a third intake (left) at 890 feet. Given the weight of the water on top, this is fiendishly difficult and will not be ready until 2014. Ms Mulroy also wants to pipe groundwater from the rural and wetter northern counties of Nevada to Las Vegas, but that has caused a vicious row.

Another response is to call in the lawyers. This was the preferred approach a century ago, in the era of the “water wars”. Starting with the Colorado River Compact of 1922 (right) and continuing with statutes, a treaty with Mexico and case law until the 1960s, a truce was achieved. Called the Law of the River, the resulting regime determines who along the river has what right to how much water.

At least, it does in theory. The problem is that the law took shape after two decades of record water flows, which became the basis for allocation. As a result it apportions more water than there is in the river. For decades that did not matter, since there were so few people. Then the cattle, fruit and people using the river multiplied.

The law’s seniority rules theoretically mean that, for example, the taps to Las Vegas would be shut completely before a single lettuce-grower in California’s Imperial County lost a drop. This “idiocy of who gets cut first and second”, as Ms Mulroy calls it, gives rise to the political dimension. These days, co-operation has supplemented, if not wholly replaced, the old rivalries among agricultural and urban users, and among the seven states. Nevada and Arizona, for example, have a water-banking partnership, whereby Arizona stores excess water in its aquifers so that Nevada could use it in a pinch. In California, the water utility of Los Angeles has bought water rights from farmers in Imperial County. But arguments persist and other options are discussed.

The final dimension is the culture of the West. Does every middle-class house really need a lawn in a desert? Ms Mulroy has already started paying Las Vegans to rip out their turf and opt for desert landscaping, which can be chic. Her own husband put up a fight but lost. So out went that lawn, too, just as the low-flow toilets and taps came in.

Source:
The Economist, "Water Worries: The drying of the West", accessed February 3, 2011

Australian floods likely to last weeks, warns Queenlands premier

The northern Australian state of Queensland faces a flood of "biblical proportions" a local official warned as rising water levels caused the evacuation of tens of thousands of people.

The flooding has hit an area the size of France and Germany, affecting 200,000 people in more than 20 towns and cities.

Officials have warned householders to beware of venomous snakes and killer crocodiles that are threatening to invade flooded homes and businesses. About 200,000 people have been affected so far as at least six river systems experienced a flood surge following Australia's wettest spring on record. More than 1,000 people are staying in evacuation centers with that number expected to rise to 4,000 by the middle of the week. Ironically, the huge rains have come after prolonged years of drought in the normally dry continent-sized country.

The disaster has also closed several coal mines and Australia's biggest coal-exporting port. About half the country's wheat crop (right: flooded crops) is also expected to be rain-damaged. Bundaberg, a major port for sugar exports, has also been shut down. It was hit after debris from the floods flowed down river and damaged navigation beacons. The focus of the floods now seems to be on Rockhampton, which is expected to receive 30ft of water by the middle of this week with an estimated 40% of Rockhampton expected to be flooded.

Rockhampton Cut off in Massive Australian Floods

The last road into the Australian city of Rockhampton was tonight cut off by water as Queensland's premier, Anna Bligh (left), warned that the floods which have overwhelmed the state may not recede for weeks.

"It looks like Rockhampton is in the middle of an inland sea. The amount of water coming down these river systems is nothing short of astonishing," said Bligh on a visit to the city. "Given the scale and size of this disaster, and the prospect that we will see water sitting potentially for a couple of weeks, we will have major issues to deal with throughout January."

Rockhampton, a town of 77,000 people 370 miles north of Brisbane, lies close to the coast, on the Fitzroy, one of Australia's largest river systems. It is among the biggest of the 22 towns affected by the tide of flooding that has swept across the eastern Australian state of Queensland over the past three days, and also one of the worst hit.

All main routes to the south, north and west of the city have been cut by the rising water. Rail lines and the airport runways are also submerged and the floodwaters stretch for several miles in each direction. On the Bruce Highway to the south, one of the few things to rise above the water is the "Welcome to Rockhampton" sign.

"Rockhampton is an island," the town's mayor, Brad Carter, says. "You can look down a street for a kilometer and see nothing but water." As well as the human residents, the local wildlife has been caught off-guard by nature's excesses. Bewildered and hungry kangaroos can be seen gathered together on any scrap of high ground and at night the sound of bellowing cattle, lost and confused by the water, fills the air.

Rockhampton will be supplied by military helicopters and by barge. Fourteen tons of food and medical supplies were taken in today by road before the highway was cut off.

Police in Rockhampton have ordered residents to leave their homes as electricity is switched off in low-lying areas. Up to 40% of the town is expected to be affected when the river peaks. Seventy people have registered at the evacuation center in the city, though there is space for many more: rescue workers say the center can accommodate up to 1,500 people.

A 60-year-old man was reported to have drowned today after his car was washed off a road, bringing the number who have died to three since the flooding began on Christmas Day. Two other men travelling in the same car, aged 19 and 40, survived the accident. Ten have died since the start of the wet season in Queensland a month ago.

Some residents did not want to evacuate until later so they could rescue more of their possessions. However, many were put off by the arrival of scores of deadly brown snakes. "I shot 17 in one day, and a woman down the road shot 26," a resident says. "They come out of the water looking for dry ground all day, but they can kill you just as quick as the floods can."

Acting assistant police commissioner, Alistair Dawson, asked people not to drive through floodwaters. "I really want to urge people to be cautious around water," he said. "As soon as we can open roads, we will."

While some areas are braced for the full force of the flood, others have begun the clean-up. Julia Gillard, the prime minister, has announced grants of up to A$25,000 (£16,000) for small businesses affected by the crisis.

"The extent of flooding being experienced by Queensland is unprecedented, and requires a national and united response to provide as much support to communities as we can," she said.

Gillard paid tribute to the way people were coping with the crisis, and said the government would do all it could to help them recover. "We know there are far too many families who have had to leave not only their homes, but also their businesses. This targeted financial assistance will help them minimize their economic losses as they embark on the very difficult recovery period that lies ahead, and help businesses start trading as soon as possible," she said.

Gillard acknowledged that the clean-up bill would be in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Queensland State Premier, Anna Bligh said the grants would help give some certainty to people affected by the crisis. "Making these grants available now means that primary producers, for example, can organize fodder drops for stranded cattle, knowing that there will be financial assistance for them," she said.

Queensland's massive coal industry has been devastated by the flooding. "We have three-quarters of our coal fields unable to operate and unable to supply markets," Bligh told ABC Television. "There is likely to be a significant long-term effect from that – and not only nationally but internationally," she said.

Coal is Australia's biggest export earner, responsible for about A$55bn in annual revenue. The country's booming resources sector has been largely responsible for the strength of the economy in the past two years.

Roads to the south and west are also cut by floodwaters as is the rail network and the city's airport, which usually caters for 70,000 passengers a month.

Source:
The Guardian, "Australian floods likely to last for weeks, Queensland premier warns", accessed January 3, 2011
The Telegraph, "Australia floods: It's like living in the middle of an ocean", accessed January 3, 2011
The Guardian, "'Biblical' floods hit Queensland and leave tens of thousands homeless", accessed January 4, 2011

Tennessee climate change is so subtle it's hard to gauge

The U.S. Department of Agriculture chief calls climate change "one of the greatest threats facing our planet," but little attention is being paid to it in Tennessee's farming world.

More rain is falling in autumn in the Southeast than a century ago. Droughts have increased in spring and summer, and the temperature has made a slight move upward, particularly since 1970.

It's projected to continue to rise, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Increasingly extreme weather is likely, such as heavier downpours and more intense droughts in some areas.

Yet change in Tennessee could be difficult to tabulate, according to Joanne Logan, an associate professor of biosystems engineering and soil engineering at the University of Tennessee.

"In Tennessee, everything is pretty subtle," she said, adding that research has not been plentiful when it comes to agriculture and climate change here.

If small changes are occurring under the radar, a trigger point could be reached suddenly where ecosystems as a whole could fail, unable to make changes quickly enough to keep up, she said.

Logan has set up a climate change clearinghouse website for the UT Institute of Agriculture, starting with climate data and available reports. More information is needed to determine what incremental changes may be taking place between pathogens and plants, she said.

The ecology of bees and bats could get out of kilter, for instance, upsetting a balance of nature that has taken thousands of years to be established. Both bats and bees have been hit with mysterious ailments that have been wiping out whole colonies.

In Tennessee, climate data show that more rain is falling in a shorter period of time and falls are wetter. Night temperatures have been warming in the last 30 years, particularly in urban areas where pavement and roofs have taken the place of grass and forests. More humidity in the air could hold radiation around the earth, even when the sun is down. That could slow plant growth, Logan said.

"These are all just really subtle things that are happening," she said of the temperatures. "We're not seeing any huge thing — no canary in the cave in Tennessee that we know of."

It's difficult for Tennesseans to be alarmed when faraway tundra melts or oceans rise, she said. But there are things worth noting here.

"Who would have thought fire ants would make it up this far north?" she said.


Droughts more frequent

In the Southeast as a whole, the average autumn rainfall has jumped by 30 percent from 1901 to 2008, and heavy rains have increased 27 percent in the fall, data from the multi-agency U.S. Global Change Research Program show.

Droughts are more frequent, too.

While the Tennessee Department of Agriculture doesn't address the issue, the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency has put out a climate change report and the Tennessee Department of Health has issued a statement.

The TWRA report projects a mean temperature increase of 5 degrees over most of the state in the next 50 years. Rainfall changes would vary over the state's regions.

Brook trout, the state's only native trout, might not be able to survive, and migratory songbirds could alter their ranges. Larger floods could increase erosion and invasive species could spread. Wood duck wouldn't be found as often raising their young along waterways and in wetlands. Drying of prairie potholes and marshes to the north could mean fewer mallard, northern pin-tail, blue-winged teal and other ducks migrating to Tennessee in winter, resulting in shorter hunting seasons.

The state Health Department says higher temperatures will lead to heat-related illnesses, and organisms that transmit viruses and other pathogens will be able to infect people in larger ranges.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack stepped up last month at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico, to say farmers and others can help and benefit, too.

Landowners can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, sequester carbon in the land and improve their financial bottom line, he said, by providing carbon mitigation services in emerging greenhouse gas markets.

The gas can trap heat around the planet, stimulating weather swings and climate change. More of the gases have been spewed into the atmosphere from humans with the advent of factories, industries and vehicles.

Farmers' views differ

Two longtime Nashville-area farmers, Bob Strasser of Nashville and A.B. "Johnny" Hicklen of Nolensville, who keep close daily watch on the weather, have differing views on the issue.

In recent years, they've seen a late freeze decimate fruit and other trees in the spring, followed by serious drought that left many farmers without feed for cattle.

Record-breaking temperatures have been tallied, and unprecedented rains in May flooded several communities, including Nashville.

Strasser, 52, a third-generation dairy farmer in Nashville's Pennington Bend, doesn't see a climate shift but rather the usual weather fluctuations that occur.

He does detect one human-caused problem.

"I don't know that drought is going to be any worse than the past, but water conservation and usage are going to be a big issue," he said via cell phone as he put out food for his cows.

"We strain our resources with concentrated growth."

Atlanta, with its burgeoning population, has needed more water supplies than it has, intensifying ongoing wars over water among Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

That's a population matter, not climate, Strasser said.

Hicklen said he gave up 30 years of strawberry growing after planting an early spring crop became too unpredictable with a changing climate.

He moved to growing pumpkins and gourds in the fall and winter, producing more than 11,000 pumpkins last year.

"Something has drastically interfered with our normal pattern of rain," Hicklen, 79, said as he sat in his Williamson County home for a cup of coffee.

"I know seasons will change, but like with our strawberries, it was an almost 100 percent turnaround."

Hicklen said he took notice in the 1980s when weather forecaster Boyce Hawkins, now deceased, talked about a changing climate. He had said the ash and gases from the violent Mount St. Helens volcano (right) eruptions in the Pacific Northwest would take 50 years to clear.

"It hasn't been the same since," Hicklen said. "The way our summer is dry as a bone. And when we do get a rain, thunderclouds are so rambunctious they blow everything away.

"The storms have so much wind."

He blamed not just volcanic eruptions but also coal-fired power plants "and the emissions from these millions and millions of automobiles. "Where is that stuff going?" he said.

Source:
The Tennessean, "Tennessee climate change is so subtle it's hard to gauge", by Anne Paine, accessed January 3, 2011

New Corn Varieties Could Combat Famine During Drought

Increasingly frequent droughts across Africa threaten to destroy the livelihoods of millions across the continent, but a new study has found the adoption of drought resistant corn could save African farmers and earn them nearly $1 billion in the coming years.

Hundreds of millions of Africans rely on corn production for income, as well as basic sustenance in their daily lives. But in recent decades, drought has wreaked havoc on populations across the continent, killing many and forcing others to rely on handouts to survive.

From 2007 through 2009 unusually low rainfall across East Africa devastated rural communities and forced the Kenya government to adopt measures to combat food shortages and rising prices.

But a new study conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center has found new breeds of corn could help farmers fight the effects of drought and provide food throughout periods of low rainfall. The study, conducted in cooperation with Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation found widespread adoption of so-called "drought-tolerant" corn could result in collective economic benefits of around $900 million for African farmers by 2016.

According to the study, the new breeds could also save consumers more than $500 million in drought related price increases during the same period.

According to one of the report's authors, Wilfred Mwangi, the introduction of drought-tolerant corn will be critical for African farmers trying to weather the effects of global climate change.

"The issue of climate change is a reality," said Mwangi. "Drought occurs very, very often in sub-Saharan Africa. It is even predicted that by 2050 we might even need entirely different varieties of maize if we are going to mitigate against drought. This whole question of climate change and drought out of that climate change is the major constraint to maize production in Africa. This is an important strategy that famers can use to adapt against climate change."

According to Mwangi, who is also the associate director of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center's Global Maize Program, many of Africa's farmers are small-scale subsistence producers with little or no access to irrigation systems, which leaves them especially vulnerable to drought conditions.

He told Voice Of America the introduction of new corn varieties could boost yields by as much as 30 percent and protect against future shortages.

East Africa has managed to recover from two consecutive years of drought with help from unusually high rains in late 2009 and early 2010. The rains were caused by an "El Nino event" and produced extremely high crop yields across the region.

But early signs of a "La Nina" event have many expert predicting reduced rainfall in the coming months. According to a brief released in August by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the developing "La Nina" could inhibit the rainy season, which typically lasts from October through December. If the rains fail, another devastating, region-wide drought can be expected as early as February.

Source:
Voice of America, "New Corn Varieties Could Combat Famine During Drought", accessed August 27, 2010

Heat damage to Russia crop past worst, official says

Russia's worst drought for decades is set to drag on for at least the next 7 days in some areas but further serious damage to grain crops is not expected, a senior government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

In Russia, half this year’s crops are lost to drought – “Winter wheat crops are 50% of the yield, and spring crops, in some cases, are going to be virtually none.” Now the situation is complicated with forest fires and peat fires. Even before the fires broke out, many farmers in European Russia were facing bankruptcy as the drought parched grain crops and pasture lands.

Hot summers are not unusual even in northern Russia, but this year temperatures have soared to record levels. Drought in some regions of Russia, one of the world's biggest wheat exporters, has sent global prices soaring to year highs in July, putting U.S. wheat futures on track for their biggest monthly gain since 1973.

For the past two weeks temperatures across much of western Russia have soared past 35C, in the hottest and longest heatwave in decades.

Russia is also suffering what is thought to be the worst drought in more than 100 years. There has been virtually no rain since winter and crops are shriveling.

"We've had 10mm of rain, scorching hot temperatures over 35C, which have just burnt all the crops up," says Colin Hinchley, a Briton who now farms in Penza near the Volga river, in southern Russia. "Winter wheat crops are 50% of the yield, and spring crops, in some cases, are going to be virtually none."

Siberia may actually compensate for the crops lost to drought in the Volga area. Wheat and barley harvest is finished in the Southern and Central Districts, and winding down in the Volga and Ural Districts. However, in the Siberian District, total-grain harvest is lagging behind last year (72 percent complete compared to 83 percent by the same date last year), but output to date is nearly 15 percent above last year due to a 28-percent year-to-year increase in cumulative yield.

Grain traders say the rally shows signs of continuing, although analysts observed stocks built up over the last two years of the largest global wheat harvests in history should ensure sufficient supplies.

The International Grains Council confirmed the impact of drought and floods in the key Black Sea growing area as it cut its 2010/11 forecast of global wheat output by 13 million tons to 651 million tons, but said it would still be the third highest crop on record.

"A prolonged period of dry weather and high temperatures significantly reduced yield prospects in Russia, Kazakhstan, parts of Ukraine and northwestern areas of the EU, while wet weather and flooding were detrimental for crops in Canada and parts of south-eastern Europe," the IGC said on Thursday.

Anna Strashnaya, head of the Agricultural Forecasts Department at Russia's Hydrometeorological Service (Rosgidromet) said that further crop damage was likely to be limited. "I don't think any more damage may be done to grains,"

This confirms Wednesday's statement by CEO and President of SovEcon agricultural analysts Andrei Sizov Sr. "Basically, the peak of losses have been passed. What has been burned has been burned," Sizov stated on Wednesday, commenting on the Black Sea region crop losses.

RAINS COMING

Rosgidromet forecast torrential rains on Thursday and Friday in the northwest and in the central part of European Russia as well as a 5-8 degree dip in temperatures from current levels close to +40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Farenheit), she said. "Now we have to harvest what is left."

Firefighters work to extinguish fire in the Russian city of Voronezh,

Entire villages in the Mordovia and Ryazan regions in central Russia have fallen to fires, state broadcaster Rossiya 24 reported. A fire-fighting train arrived in Mordovia too late to save one village after strong winds fueled the flames.

Russia called in the army on Friday, July 30th, to combat fires sweeping across the drought-stricken European part of the country and forcing thousands of people to flee. Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, admitted that Russia was technically ill-equipped to combat the escalating crisis. “The situation is really difficult. Unfortunately, we do not have the capacity rapidly to solve such disasters, “ he said. He did pledge that the Russian government would provide shelter and compensation for people displaced by the fires.

At least 25 people have been killed as high winds fanned fires in forests and farmland parched by a prolonged heatwave. More than 2,170 people fled their homes as fires engulfed large swathes of the Moscow, Voronezh, Nizhnenovogorod, Vladimir and Ryazan regions.

In the regions along the Volga worst hit by the drought no rains are expected in the next 7 days and the heat of between +35 and +40 degrees Celsius will continue.

Record heat bakes Moscow as peat and forest fires blanket the city in haze. Heat records that beat previous 30-70 year-old highs were registered in July in the North-Western, Central and Volga Federal Districts, the service said.

Russian officials are very careful giving crop forecasts but this week, SovEcon, the Moscow-based agriculture consultancy, warned that Russia's grain harvest would drop by at least 20 per cent this year to 70m - 75m tons,

Men sail a boat with
burning trees seen in the background in the Russian city of Voronezh July 29, 2010.

barely enough to cover the nation’s needs. Many small farmers are slaughtering livestock, unable to afford the soaring cost of animal feed.

It is hoped that the crop situation in the North Caucasus, considered one of Russia's main breadbaskets, is benign and that this may partially cushion the damage caused to other regions.

Heat is also set to stay in the Urals. In many regions of Siberia and the Far East, where the harvesting has not yet started, abundant rains are expected in the next few days.

UKRAINE CONTROLS EXPORTS

In neighboring Ukraine, suffering its own problems from drought and flooding, customs services set new controls on wheat exports, which traders said on Thursday could halt shipments.

A cow looks on with a burning house seen in the background in the Russian city of Voronezh, July 29, 2010.

"This effectively means a ban on wheat exports," Serhiy Stoyanov, head of Ukrainian traders' and producers' union UAC, stated, as analysts said Ukraine was positioning itself to deal with grain shortages after its troubled growing season.

"The latest actions show that the government fears a food grain shortage in the country and the controls are directed at making food grain exports more complicated and limiting sales," said Mykola Vernytsky from ProAgro consultancy.

Fellow Black Sea grain producer Romania, said on Thursday it had harvested 4.4 million tons of wheat from three quarters of the area planted but yields.
yields had dropped due to flooding and hail causing a 15 percent plunge in expected output.

Romania's southern Black Sea neighbor Bulgaria said it had exported some 51,000 tons of wheat from its new crop, mainly to Spain, Italy and Portugal, while another 110,000 tons are being loaded, an official said.

Although Bulgaria's harvest is expected to be down on last years because of the weather farmers and traders say its wheat exports may match last year's exports of 1.4 million tons, if demand remains high and prices attractive.

Source:
Reuters,,"Heat damage to Russia crop past worst, official says", accessed July 29, 2010
Financial Times, "Russia calls in army as fires escalate", accessed July 31, 2010