Large storms more likely in future, experts say

While Queenslanders deal with a summer of natural disasters, climate scientists are warning that Australia faces a future of more frequent extreme weather events.

The Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry is scrutinizing the preparation and response to the 2011 floods, but planners are already looking ahead to minimize the loss of the past.
According to new modeling, Australia can expect 25 per cent more rain than was seen in the Queensland floods by the end of this century, as well as larger, more frequent storms.

"The modeling that's been done by CLIM Systems in New Zealand has shown that in 2100 there could be a 25 per cent increase in rainfall," sustainability consultant Stella Whittaker said.

storms, they are going to be more likely and it really means that people can see this type of event happening more than once in their lifetime."

And in the wake of events like last month's floods, Ms Whittaker says governments and companies have not put climate change at the forefront of their decision-making, despite the warnings. (Right:click for larger image)

Audio: The Worst is Yet to Come

"There are lots of companies who are planning for 2100 across all of the sectors. The property sector has probably been the first ones to actually do detailed assessments of bush fire risks (right), sea level rise and extreme events. That work is really only just beginning," she said.

"[There] might be a change to levels of where infrastructure is built or bridges. It might be a different sort of material that is used, it might be looking at a different route entirely so that is beginning to be factored in."

With that in mind, the advice for Queensland from scientists is to build in the resilience that is needed to withstand a future of extremes.

"If you build houses or if you build infrastructure such that it is not vulnerable to the observed variability in climate over the last 50 or 100 years, I think you will build in a lot of the resilience you need for the future that climate scientists are projecting," said Andy Pitman, a climate scientist from the University of New South Wales.

"Not all of it, but you will have built enough resilience to give us a reasonable chance of dealing with the economic impacts of climate change in many of the regions of Australia."

Source:
ABC.net.au,"Large storms more likely in future, experts say",accessed February 14, 2011
The Guardian, "UK poorly prepared for impact of global warming, climate watchdog warns", accessed February 14, 2011

Relief as Australia mops up from giant cyclone

Australians voiced relief and surprise after one of the world's most powerful cyclones spared the nation's northeast coast from expected devastation on Thursday, with no reported deaths despite winds tearing off roofs and toppling trees.

Cyclone Yasi, roughly the size of Italy and packing winds of up to around 300 km per hour (186 miles per hour) and waves up to 30 feet, threatened Australia with its second major natural disaster in as many months this week but ended up missing heavily populated areas.

The massive cyclone, which hit at midnight (2am GMT), missed major population centers of Cairns and Townsville, making landfall at the smaller coastal communities of Mission Beach, Cardwell and Tully.

"It's amazing no-one was killed. The wind was howling like a banshee," said farmer Nathan Fisher, speaking out the window of his four-wheel-drive vehicle as he returned to his property from a shelter in the small town of Innisfail.

Australia, a vast continent with less than three people for every square km, is one of the few countries where a storm as large and terrifying as Yasi -- with a diameter of up to around 500 km (310 miles) -- could simply miss major cities.

Even as Yasi began its 1,000 km (620 mile) inland march into the outback on Thursday, weakening all the time, tracking forecasts showed it was likely to hit only a handful of small towns in a region home to around 400,000 people.

The lack of any major damage or substantial casualties was also attributed to several days of cyclone preparation, early evacuations, laws that ensure newer homes and buildings are strong enough to survive a cyclone, and less than expected sea flooding as the cyclone missed the peak tides.

The cyclone came ashore along hundreds of km of coast in Queensland state and then drove inland, bringing heavy rains to mining areas struggling to recover from recent devastating floods.

"Early reports have given us all a great sense of relief," Queensland Premier Anna Bligh told reporters, adding the cyclone emergency was still unfolding.

She said that in some places 90 per cent of homes had suffered serious structural damage and he region faced a long and arduous recovery.

"Some people in this region will be going back to their communities, going back to their neighborhoods, and facing scenes of considerable devastation. There are people now that have lost their homes, they lost their farms, they have lost their crops and they have lost their livelihoods and I have no doubt that many of them will experience a great sense of despair."

Yasi was rated a maximum-strength category five storm, on a par with Hurricane Katrina, which wrecked New Orleans in 2005, killing 1,500 people and causing $81 billion in damage. (At right: Yasi's eye at category 5)

It was downgraded to a category-two storm as it moved inland but its core remained very destructive, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

The destruction wrought by Yasi is likely to make life in north Queensland very difficult in the coming days and weeks. Flooding resulting from heavy rain and fallen trees had cut major roads and rail lines and power was down to 180,000 buildings. Due to damage to infrastructure, residents of Townsville, which is home to 180,000 people, were asked to ration water use.

Ron Darlington, resident of Tully, where 90 per cent of buildings were damaged, said the scenes at dawn were "unbelievable". "There is not a blade of grass, there is not a leaf on a tree, the power lines are down, most of the roads are blocked, every single house has been damaged."

Noelene Byrne, also in Tully, said it looked like "bombs have come through and destroyed everything".

The biggest impact could be on the economy. Many sugarcane crops have been totally destroyed by Cyclone Yasi, as the industry fears losses of up to $500 million.

Reports from the worst-hit town of Tully and its surrounding area indicate some farms have been wiped out by the category five tropical cyclone, industry body Canegrowers said today.

"Many sugarcane growers in far north Queensland have lost everything - house, crop, machinery and livelihood - during the devastating force of cyclone Yasi," chief executive Steve Greenwood said.

While Tully, Mission Beach and Cardwell appear the worst hit, destruction has also occurred between Cairns and Townsville, an area in which almost one third of Australia's sugarcane is grown.

The full damage to crops is still being assessed, but first indications show up to half the region's sugar crop has been affected, Mr Greenwood said.

The full extent of damage is likely to be more clear over the coming days, although the impact of the storm will not be completely known until harvesting begins mid-year, he said.

Due to the nature of sugarcane production, the impact of Yasi on the industry is likely to be felt over several years. Australia is the world's third largest raw sugar exporter.

Banana plantations fared no better than sugar cane plantations. Some banana plantations were destroyed and under water after Yasi went through; in other banana plantations the trees were uprooted and knocked over. Full damage assessment has not yet been completed.

Some coal mines remained shut after the cyclone passed, although others were starting to resume operations. Queensland accounts for 90 percent of Australia's steel making coal exports.

TOURIST AREAS HIT, TREES SNAPPED

The eye of the cyclone crossed the coast near the tourist town of Mission Beach, where devastating Cyclone Larry struck in 2006, and damaged areas around Tully and Cardwell, where many older homes, built before tougher building codes were applied, suffered severe damage.

Authorities said initial reports suggested only about 100 houses had suffered major damage. There were no initial reports of serious injuries although two people were reported as missing in Innisfail.

Hills around Tully were covered in snapped trees and scoured almost clean of vegetation by the force of the wind. The main road into Tully was flooded and several houses had roofs torn off, with crumpled tin lying in flooded fields.

At Innisfail, Bill Biscow stood in flood waters and cleaned up roofing shredded by the storm. "It was scary, but the damage is not as bad as last time when the place got flattened. Cyclone Larry probably blew away the oldest buildings."

In the coastal hamlet of Cowley Beach, steel roofs were torn from houses and twisted around power poles.

"I've been in the area for a long time and I've seen many of these, but this one is the biggest I've ever seen," said 84-year-old Robert Hurst, cleaning up his still-intact house.

A weather bureau spokesman said a storm surge of two meters (six feet) above normal tides had inundated one stretch of coast but the surges were not as severe as authorities had feared.

The cyclone had cut electricity to around 200,000 homes, but main links to the power grid remained intact.

Queensland has had a cruel summer, with floods sweeping across it and other eastern states in recent months, killing 35 people and causing damage estimated at $10 billion or more.

Source:
Reuters,"Relief as Australia mops up from giant cyclone", accessed February 2, 2011
News.com.au, "Cyclone Yasi devastates sugar industry", accessed February 2, 2011
The Telegraph, "Cyclone Yasi: preparation saved thousands of lives", accessed February 2, 2011

Australian floods likely to last weeks, warns Queenlands premier

The northern Australian state of Queensland faces a flood of "biblical proportions" a local official warned as rising water levels caused the evacuation of tens of thousands of people.

The flooding has hit an area the size of France and Germany, affecting 200,000 people in more than 20 towns and cities.

Officials have warned householders to beware of venomous snakes and killer crocodiles that are threatening to invade flooded homes and businesses. About 200,000 people have been affected so far as at least six river systems experienced a flood surge following Australia's wettest spring on record. More than 1,000 people are staying in evacuation centers with that number expected to rise to 4,000 by the middle of the week. Ironically, the huge rains have come after prolonged years of drought in the normally dry continent-sized country.

The disaster has also closed several coal mines and Australia's biggest coal-exporting port. About half the country's wheat crop (right: flooded crops) is also expected to be rain-damaged. Bundaberg, a major port for sugar exports, has also been shut down. It was hit after debris from the floods flowed down river and damaged navigation beacons. The focus of the floods now seems to be on Rockhampton, which is expected to receive 30ft of water by the middle of this week with an estimated 40% of Rockhampton expected to be flooded.

Rockhampton Cut off in Massive Australian Floods

The last road into the Australian city of Rockhampton was tonight cut off by water as Queensland's premier, Anna Bligh (left), warned that the floods which have overwhelmed the state may not recede for weeks.

"It looks like Rockhampton is in the middle of an inland sea. The amount of water coming down these river systems is nothing short of astonishing," said Bligh on a visit to the city. "Given the scale and size of this disaster, and the prospect that we will see water sitting potentially for a couple of weeks, we will have major issues to deal with throughout January."

Rockhampton, a town of 77,000 people 370 miles north of Brisbane, lies close to the coast, on the Fitzroy, one of Australia's largest river systems. It is among the biggest of the 22 towns affected by the tide of flooding that has swept across the eastern Australian state of Queensland over the past three days, and also one of the worst hit.

All main routes to the south, north and west of the city have been cut by the rising water. Rail lines and the airport runways are also submerged and the floodwaters stretch for several miles in each direction. On the Bruce Highway to the south, one of the few things to rise above the water is the "Welcome to Rockhampton" sign.

"Rockhampton is an island," the town's mayor, Brad Carter, says. "You can look down a street for a kilometer and see nothing but water." As well as the human residents, the local wildlife has been caught off-guard by nature's excesses. Bewildered and hungry kangaroos can be seen gathered together on any scrap of high ground and at night the sound of bellowing cattle, lost and confused by the water, fills the air.

Rockhampton will be supplied by military helicopters and by barge. Fourteen tons of food and medical supplies were taken in today by road before the highway was cut off.

Police in Rockhampton have ordered residents to leave their homes as electricity is switched off in low-lying areas. Up to 40% of the town is expected to be affected when the river peaks. Seventy people have registered at the evacuation center in the city, though there is space for many more: rescue workers say the center can accommodate up to 1,500 people.

A 60-year-old man was reported to have drowned today after his car was washed off a road, bringing the number who have died to three since the flooding began on Christmas Day. Two other men travelling in the same car, aged 19 and 40, survived the accident. Ten have died since the start of the wet season in Queensland a month ago.

Some residents did not want to evacuate until later so they could rescue more of their possessions. However, many were put off by the arrival of scores of deadly brown snakes. "I shot 17 in one day, and a woman down the road shot 26," a resident says. "They come out of the water looking for dry ground all day, but they can kill you just as quick as the floods can."

Acting assistant police commissioner, Alistair Dawson, asked people not to drive through floodwaters. "I really want to urge people to be cautious around water," he said. "As soon as we can open roads, we will."

While some areas are braced for the full force of the flood, others have begun the clean-up. Julia Gillard, the prime minister, has announced grants of up to A$25,000 (£16,000) for small businesses affected by the crisis.

"The extent of flooding being experienced by Queensland is unprecedented, and requires a national and united response to provide as much support to communities as we can," she said.

Gillard paid tribute to the way people were coping with the crisis, and said the government would do all it could to help them recover. "We know there are far too many families who have had to leave not only their homes, but also their businesses. This targeted financial assistance will help them minimize their economic losses as they embark on the very difficult recovery period that lies ahead, and help businesses start trading as soon as possible," she said.

Gillard acknowledged that the clean-up bill would be in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Queensland State Premier, Anna Bligh said the grants would help give some certainty to people affected by the crisis. "Making these grants available now means that primary producers, for example, can organize fodder drops for stranded cattle, knowing that there will be financial assistance for them," she said.

Queensland's massive coal industry has been devastated by the flooding. "We have three-quarters of our coal fields unable to operate and unable to supply markets," Bligh told ABC Television. "There is likely to be a significant long-term effect from that – and not only nationally but internationally," she said.

Coal is Australia's biggest export earner, responsible for about A$55bn in annual revenue. The country's booming resources sector has been largely responsible for the strength of the economy in the past two years.

Roads to the south and west are also cut by floodwaters as is the rail network and the city's airport, which usually caters for 70,000 passengers a month.

Source:
The Guardian, "Australian floods likely to last for weeks, Queensland premier warns", accessed January 3, 2011
The Telegraph, "Australia floods: It's like living in the middle of an ocean", accessed January 3, 2011
The Guardian, "'Biblical' floods hit Queensland and leave tens of thousands homeless", accessed January 4, 2011