Showing posts with label Australia flooding. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australia flooding. Show all posts

Friday, February 18, 2011

Large storms more likely in future, experts say

While Queenslanders deal with a summer of natural disasters, climate scientists are warning that Australia faces a future of more frequent extreme weather events.

The Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry is scrutinizing the preparation and response to the 2011 floods, but planners are already looking ahead to minimize the loss of the past.
According to new modeling, Australia can expect 25 per cent more rain than was seen in the Queensland floods by the end of this century, as well as larger, more frequent storms.

"The modeling that's been done by CLIM Systems in New Zealand has shown that in 2100 there could be a 25 per cent increase in rainfall," sustainability consultant Stella Whittaker said.

storms, they are going to be more likely and it really means that people can see this type of event happening more than once in their lifetime."


And in the wake of events like last month's floods, Ms Whittaker says governments and companies have not put climate change at the forefront of their decision-making, despite the warnings. (Right:click for larger image)

Audio: The Worst is Yet to Come



"There are lots of companies who are planning for 2100 across all of the sectors. The property sector has probably been the first ones to actually do detailed assessments of bush fire risks (right), sea level rise and extreme events. That work is really only just beginning," she said.

"[There] might be a change to levels of where infrastructure is built or bridges. It might be a different sort of material that is used, it might be looking at a different route entirely so that is beginning to be factored in."

With that in mind, the advice for Queensland from scientists is to build in the resilience that is needed to withstand a future of extremes.

"If you build houses or if you build infrastructure such that it is not vulnerable to the observed variability in climate over the last 50 or 100 years, I think you will build in a lot of the resilience you need for the future that climate scientists are projecting," said Andy Pitman, a climate scientist from the University of New South Wales.

"Not all of it, but you will have built enough resilience to give us a reasonable chance of dealing with the economic impacts of climate change in many of the regions of Australia."

Source:
ABC.net.au,"Large storms more likely in future, experts say",accessed February 14, 2011
The Guardian, "UK poorly prepared for impact of global warming, climate watchdog warns", accessed February 14, 2011

Monday, January 31, 2011

Australia's north braces for massive cyclone

Australia's flood-stricken state of Queensland (left) closed major coal ports, evacuated tourists from vulnerable resorts and warned of heavy rain on Monday ahead of a massive cyclone due to slam into its coast this week.

Forecasters said Cyclone Yasi could be generating gales of more than 250 kph when it hits the coast on Wednesday or Thursday, which would put it on a par with Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005.

Yasi is expected to hit Queensland just days after another tropical storm struck the state. Cyclone Anthony hit the coast early Monday morning and quickly weakened from 80 mph (130 kph) winds to a tropical low. The storm uprooted trees and knocked down power lines in some areas but spared communities any major damage.

"This is a very serious threat," Queensland Premier Anna Bligh told reporters. "It may be one of the largest and most significant cyclones we've ever had to deal with."

Tropical cyclone Yasi, which formed in the Coral Sea, is emerging as a triple threat to Queensland's highly populated north coast, bringing with it destructive winds, storm surge and heavy rains. Officials are prompting evacuations and are warning that the storm could be the worst the already-swamped region has ever seen.

Weather bureau meteorologist Gordon Banks rated the developing system off Fiji as very dangerous.

Mr Banks said it would move slowly inland, a situation that tended to bring flood rains. "It's developing strongly near Vanuatu and we don't expect it to lose too much strength as it moves towards the coast," Mr Banks said. "If it is as strong as the models suggest, category three or better, heavy rain could potentially affect the interior on Friday, Saturday and Sunday."

Mr Banks said the cyclone was expected to come ashore in the north, but because it was so early in its development, nowhere between Princess Charlotte Bay on Cape York and Fraser Island in the southeast could be ruled out.

Currently, however, the cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Innisfail and Proserpine -- with Queensland's northern capital of Townsville directly in its path (left) -- overnight on Wednesday as a Category 2 system, bringing wind gusts of up to 275km/h and heavy rain.

Authorities are also extremely concerned about possible storm surges and flooding, advising residents in low-lying waterfront areas to relocate to higher ground.

Queensland disaster coordinator Ian Stewart yesterday warned north Queensland residents used to tropical cyclones not to underestimate the system.

"Relocation should be considered by people in low-lying areas. This is a very, very serious threat to the safety of our coastline and the safety of our community," he said.

The coastal region is home to more than 310,000 people, including Queensland's second-largest city of Townsville, with 180,000 people, and the growth hub of Mackay, population 80,000. But the coastline is also dotted with towns of just under 10,000 people, including Innisfail, Ayr and Bowen, and towns with between 3000 and 5000 people, including Ingham, Mission Beach, Tully, Home Hill and Proserpine.

Winds of more than 100km/h will buffet the area by mid-morning tomorrow.

Strong building codes have been in place since the 1960s in north Queensland, in a bid to ensure properties are better protected against cyclones and authorities have advised residents -- other than people in low-lying waterfront areas -- to remain in their homes. Heavy rain, including predictions of dumps of more than a meter, will spread south and inland from where Yasi crosses the coast, and is expected to inundate already sodden catchments of the central highlands. (At right: people in low lying areas wade out of flooding from earlier in year)

Queensland, which accounts for about a fifth of Australia's economy and 90 percent of its exports of steel making coal, has borne the brunt of a cruel summer, with floods having swept across the eastern seaboard in the past month, killing at least 35 people.

Cyclone Anthony then Cyclone Yasi

Queensland is also home to Australia's sugar industry, (left: sugar cane fields being harvested) which was also hurt by the floods and now risks being battered by the cyclone.

The floods swamped around 30,000 homes, destroyed roads and rail lines (right) and crippled Queensland's coal industry, with up to 15 million tons of exports estimated to have been delayed into the second half of this year.

Queensland's coal mines are mostly well inland and unlikely to be smashed by Cyclone Yasi, but they could be drenched again by heavy rain. The mines are still struggling to pump water out of their pits.

The Queensland Resources Council has estimated that the state's coal miners would take until March to return to normal but warned on Monday of further delays because of cyclones.

"If we get any more rain, it's just going to stretch out that time frame," council spokeswoman Caroline Morrissey said.

"The problem is we have got water in the pits, the mine dams are full and to pump water out of the pits they need to pump the water into the mine dams and there is no room for the water."

Cyclone Yasi is expected to classified "category 4" by the time it reaches the coast. That is the second-highest category and would be around the same strength as Hurricane Katrina and the strongest to hit Australia since early 2006.

Cyclone Yasi, currently in the southwest Pacific, is expected to make landfall near the northeast military town of Townsville with wind gusts of 200 to 260 kph, but with damaging winds along more than 1,000 km (620 miles) of coastline.

Australia's largest export terminal for coking coal, Dalrymple Bay (at left), had already suspended operations on Sunday because of an earlier cyclone, now passed. It decided on Monday to remain closed with the rapid approach of Yasi.

A poll of analysts last week showed Queensland would lose 11.3 million tons in coking coal output in 2011, equal to almost 5 percent of world exports. Most analysts believed miners would take until end-March to return to normal.

No sugar ships are currently in the major export terminal of Mackay, Australia's biggest sugar export port (right) which can handle up to 3 million tons a year. Most of the sugar from last harvest has already been shipped.

Source:
Reuters, "Australia's north braces for massive cyclone", accessed January 31, 2011
The Australian, "Cyclone Yasi a triple threat to Queensland's north coast", accessed January 31, 2011

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Australia's floods a glimpse of warmer future

Though you can't make a direct link between Australia's killer floods and climate change, they do hold a warning for the future: Scientists predict such extreme weather events will increase both in intensity and frequency as the planet warms.

Raging floodwaters have swamped thousands of homes and businesses in Queensland, leaving at least 25 people dead and dozens more missing since late November. Rail lines and highways (right) have been washed away in what is shaping up to become Australia's costliest natural disaster.

The flooding follows a spate of severe natural disasters in the past year. While the most deadly was Haiti's earthquake, extreme weather also killed thousands of people across the globe, including a scorching heat wave that choked Russia in the summer and devastating floods that engulfed more than 60,000 square miles (150,000 square kilometers) in Pakistan.

"The Earth is delivering a message to us. And the message is that more extreme weather is becoming the norm rather than the exception," said John Magrath, a climate change researcher at British charity Oxfam.

He said there is a misconception that global warming only means higher temperatures. "It actually means more energy in the climatic system, which stimulates extremes and more chaotic behavior," Magrath said.

Droughts and floods are expected to become more severe as global temperatures climb. Less clear is the impact on wind patterns and ocean currents, factors that could alter climate in potentially dramatic ways not fully understood yet.

Last year tied with 2005 as the warmest on record, with combined global land and ocean surface temperatures rising 1.12 degrees Fahrenheit (0.62 degrees Celsius) above normal, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday.

In the U.S., it was the 23rd warmest year on record and the 14th year in a row with an annual temperature above the long-term average, according to NOAA's preliminary analysis.

Meanwhile, the extent of Arctic sea ice in the summer - a key indicator of global warming - was at its third lowest level, behind 2007 and 2008.

Most atmospheric scientists attribute most of the warming seen in recent decades to gases released into the air by industrial processes and gasoline-burning engines.

Australia's floods, which started in late November, have been linked to
the La Nina weather phenomenon, which refers to cooler than normal surface sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific, causing disruptions in weather patterns. La Nina occurs naturally, and the link to climate change remains unclear, said Omar Baddour of the World Meteorological Organization.

"But as we know, extreme events whether their cause is due to La Nina or El Nino or other factors, will be more intense in the era of climate change," he added.

Reinsurer Munich Re counted nearly 1,000 natural disasters in 2010 - nine-tenths of them weather-related - the second highest number since 1980. The resulting economic losses totaled $130 billion, the German company said earlier this month.

"The high number of weather-related natural catastrophes and record
temperatures both globally and in different regions of the world provide further indications of advancing climate change," Munich Re said.

Scientists caution against drawing conclusions about climate change from a single storm, flood, cold snap or heat wave. Natural variability is and will always be a factor when it comes to extreme weather.

Still, single events can be useful in highlighting shortcomings in our preparedness for a warmer world more prone to extremes, said Markku Rummukainen, a climate scientist at Lund University in Sweden.

"For example, that Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans does not have to have anything to do with climate change, but it revealed vulnerabilities that hadn't been considered," said Rummukainen, who is also involved in drafting the next report by the U.N.'s expert panel on climate change. "It remains to be seen what conclusions can be drawn in Australia."

Source:
Lake Wylie Pilot,"Australia's floods a glimpse of warmer future",By Karl Ritter, accessed January 15, 2011