The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released their hurricane predictions for the North Atlantic hurricane season. Supplementing the document, they also provided some answers as to the potential impacts of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic on the Gulf oil spill.
According to NOAA, the oil spill is expected to have little impact on the intensity and track of hurricanes because the size of the oil spill is
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However, as for what the hurricanes would do to the oil spill, NOAA predicts that it will largely depend on the path of the hurricane. If a hurricane occurs over the region, the winds are likely to disperse the oil to
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In general terms, the NOAA document predicts that if the hurricane moves past to the west of the oil spill, then it could move the oil spill to the coast and if a hurricane moves to the east of the oil spill, it could move the oil spill away from the coast.
A hurricane could have a positive effect on the oil spill as “wind can mix and weather the oil which can help accelerate the bio-degradation process."
The presence of oil in the gulf is also reported to possibly play a role in the development of a storm in the gulf. “In theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact
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Experts from Florida State University (FSU) doing research on the various aspects of hurricane behavior and their possible interactions with oil leaks also expressed their views in an email correspondence.
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“Non-hurricane winds during hurricane season will push the oil spill away from Florida and towards Louisiana. If a tropical storm or hurricane forms or moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the winds are likely to change direction. If the tropical cyclone travels across the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely that the wind directions will change, and the strong winds will spread the oil. The storm surge would
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There are also some good things that will happen. The wind and waves from a tropical cyclone will help break up the surface layer of oil, turning it into an emulsion (kind of like shaking a bottle of salad dressing). That makes a lot more oil surface on the droplets, and gives naturally occurring microbes better exposure to the oil, making it easier for them to consume the oil. Tropical cyclones are typically associated with heavy rainfall. This rain can help flush wetlands and beaches, removing most of the oil back to the sea,” said Bourassa.
Dmitry Dukhovskoy, a scientist, specializing in Physical Oceanography at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at FSU also pitched in. He
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Should a hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico, Dukhovskoy said that “it may be really bad for the coast region. Depending on the hurricane trajectory, maximum winds, hurricane translation speed, and proximity of the oil spill to the cost, oil may quickly drift to the coastal wetlands, grass flats, small bays and river channels. According to our model results, under the hurricane force winds, surface currents may be as high as 1 m/s, meaning that the oil materials can travel towards the coast at speed of 3.6 km/hr. In one day, it will travel 54 miles. Due to the surge and a very flat
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Tim LaRow, associate research scientist at the FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), in collaboration with his colleagues at COAPS have developed a new computer model that has predicted how many hurricanes will occur in a given season with unprecedented accuracy. LaRow will be making his predictions public on June 1 after utilizing the sea surface temperatures released by NOAA.
Source:
The Epoch Times,"Experts Predict Hurricane Season Impact on Gulf Oil Spill", accessed June 1, 2010
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